Future selling prices on used FF Cobras ? - FFCars.com : Factory Five Racing Discussion Forum

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post #1 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 10:42 AM Thread Starter
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Future selling prices on used FF Cobras ?

Lately(at the major car auctions) original (untouched) muscle cars are bringing as much or more than ground up restored muscle cars.
Question is.These FFCobras (each & everyone of them) ARE "originals" .Will the same hold true with them ,in the future ?

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post #2 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 10:55 AM Thread Starter
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Never say never.I doubt any of us (including me) back in the 60s would of guessed a $7,000 original would now be selling for Millions.

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post #3 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 12:10 PM
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An original FFR is never going to be worth a million

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post #4 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 12:22 PM
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Here is one observation.

One difference I see between the Originals or the true Muscle Cars (3-Two GTO, Hemi, Lightweights, racing history examples, extreme rarity like XJ13s), etc............. is the huge numbers of FFRs. Yes there were thousands of 3-Two GTO, but how many survive?

Fifteen years in, Factory Five is probably up to the 9000s or very close. Those numbers will keep climbing. Some who do not have the time or desire to build will always be around to purchase the really good builds. But for most FFR owners it was the challenge of building and building in our own combinations of power & color.

The easy availability of for sale examples and the build quality will ultimately determine future prices.

As for my "used" FFR, I have "driven" much of the value out of her. At 80,000 miles of wear and tear, paint dings and cat hair in the carpet for when I didn't close the windows etc I could sell her for half of what I have in her and call it GOOD (please don't call with an offer). I've got the Smiles Per Mile and that was what it is always about for us.

Will the next owner take her apart for Restoration? I think only if they are looking for the challenge! Probably not to improve the investment.

But it will be interesting to see how others respond about values.

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post #5 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 12:29 PM
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Here is an example TODAY at Bring A Trailer.

Factory Five Cobra Replica | Bring a Trailer

One day left of the auction and this very nice Mark II is all the way up to $20,000.

Is it worth investing at this price? Probably not. But DEFINITELY worth the cost to put some miles on that baby and enjoy her.

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post #6 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 02:14 PM Thread Starter
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10,20 even 100 thousand FF Cobras is like a drop of water in the Pacific .Compared to 7.5 Billion.
And counting > World Population Clock: 7.5 Billion People (2017) - Worldometers
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post #7 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 03:34 PM
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So what would constitute a "original", seeing as every builder does their car a little differently than anyone else. How would concours judging go where the judges look at every bolt to see if it has the original finish, if the overspray is factory correct, if the brand of tires is one that was offered by the factory, etc. Sorry, not going to happen with any component car.
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post #8 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 04:28 PM
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I don't think FFRs will ever be collectibles as they are replicas. The terms investment and replica rarely go together. They would likely be in the same realm as an Arntz Cobra replica today. No one is collecting those.

The "unrestored" thing is just the latest trend for higher end collectors. That lets the rich guy say "I have one of these and you don't", which is what it's all about in those circles. It used to be that "unrestored " meant "unrestored and like new condition". But, of course, there are few of those, so people try to jump on the bandwagon and start buying cars in #3 and #4 condition that NEED restoration, and applying the same label. Of course sellers are laughing at these idiots all the way to the bank. There is nothing original about rust, dents, peeling paint, pitted chrome, and torn interiors. As soon as that trend changes to the next thing, I'll bet most of those ragged out cars get sold for a huge loss and restored by someone else. These are the same guys taking big losses on hemi powered cars that they overpaid for a few years back.

FFRS are meant to be driven and enjoyed. They are not investment pieces.
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post #9 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 05:19 PM
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I could sell her for half of what I have in her and call it GOOD (please don't call with an offer). I've got the Smiles Per Mile and that was what it is always about for us.
If you are building / buying expecting profit or even break even you will most likely be disappointed. But think of spending $35K to $40K on a 'weekend fun car' like a new Mustang GT. 10 years from now it will be worth a fraction of what you paid for it, most likely less than half. Build an FFR for $35K to $40K and 10 years from now you may not be able to get quite that for it but you won't be suffering anything like the depreciation of the Mustang and I will guarantee that the FFR will put way more smiles on your face and leave you with way more stories to tell.

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post #10 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 05:25 PM
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I've been watching these prices for over 10 years.

0 miles = break even or make a few thousand on a build
10,000 miles = lose a few grand on the build
20,000 miles = lose $5K on the build
30,000 miles = lose $5-10K on the build
40,000 miles = lose $10-15K on a build

it levels off after 50,000 miles.

the above changes with build quality and customizations, a $60K parts car will keep more value.

I have noticed that cars with Fuel Injection depreciate slower, cars with Coyote motors will depreciate even slower.


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post #11 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 06:30 PM
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The logic isn't there. The original cars are so valuable because they were produced in limited numbers and are no longer produced, hence limited numbers forcing price increases. There are still many companies producing replicas of the cobra. So long as you can go buy a replica cobra, the value of your used cobra replica will be lower than the cost of that new replica. It doesn't matter who produced it, the replica will always be a replica and essentially valued at the sum of it's parts. Yes, it is true the MK1 is no longer produced, but the MK4 is very similar in appearance and function, and the MK4 is a closer, more accurate replica. Unlike a corvette, where the style and function has evolved over time, making the 53 corvette stingray completely different from the current C7.

If demand for cobra replicas spiked to an unforeseen high, no doubt factory five and other manufacturers would increase production to satisfy the market demand, just like Chevrolet does when demand increases for the corvette.

Having said that, compare the depreciation NiceGuyEddie listed below with a base corvette and see which is the better investment in the first 3, 5, 10 and 15 years. I bet in 10 years, the corvette will be worth 1/4 to 1/3rd the original retail price. If the car is popular and loved, you might get lucky enough for it to be worth equal it's original retail value 40+ years later.

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post #12 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 07:09 PM
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Having said that, compare the depreciation NiceGuyEddie listed below with a base corvette and see which is the better investment in the first 3, 5, 10 and 15 years. I bet in 10 years, the corvette will be worth 1/4 to 1/3rd the original retail price. If the car is popular and loved, you might get lucky enough for it to be worth equal it's original retail value 40+ years later.
DING DING DING DING

This is EXACTLY why I can't get myself to sell! Say I got $35K for my car and I bought a pristine Honda S2000, a custom Miata, or Z06 Corvette (possible for 35K) 10 years later, my money is out the window!

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post #13 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 07:39 PM Thread Starter
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Cobra sold for 13.7 Million >> The First Shelby Cobra Sold for $13.75 Million
Whats "logical" about this.
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post #14 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 08:16 PM
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Cobra sold for 13.7 Million >> The First Shelby Cobra Sold for $13.75 Million
Whats "logical" about this.
Because it was #1 and to that buyer that is the value to them. When it comes to human's making purchasing decisions you can't use logical in the same sentence. Everyone of us has a different utility barometer that controls our purchases.

Our cars aren't even in good production car's realm. To the average car guy we are just a kit car, they are correct they were not assembled by a major manufacturer. The best example, it was posted here, some guy built a 60's Ferrari from NOS and even recreated the aluminium body. He used a more reliable modern engine but it is still a kit car, not a Ferrari.

I bought and built my car to run it into the ground. I still pour money into it and thrash it. I love the experience so for about $2k a year I am one happy guy. So doing the math I have over $30k in mine, 10 years x $2,000 = -$20,000 if I were to sell and I got around $15k I would be satisfied.

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post #15 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-19-2017, 12:08 AM
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From where I'm sitting, here's the problem:

Roadster for sale 16k billings mt

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post #16 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-19-2017, 01:20 AM
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No matter the age, condition or quality of an FFR "Cobra" ... it will never be more than an "original replica". No REPLICA appreciates in value like an original. They are built to be driven and replicate the Cobra experience w/o destroying an original.They will never be a collectible.
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post #17 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-19-2017, 01:24 AM
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I don't think FFRs will ever be collectibles as they are replicas. The terms investment and replica rarely go together. They would likely be in the same realm as an Arntz Cobra replica today. No one is collecting those.

The "unrestored" thing is just the latest trend for higher end collectors. That lets the rich guy say "I have one of these and you don't", which is what it's all about in those circles. It used to be that "unrestored " meant "unrestored and like new condition". But, of course, there are few of those, so people try to jump on the bandwagon and start buying cars in #3 and #4 condition that NEED restoration, and applying the same label. Of course sellers are laughing at these idiots all the way to the bank. There is nothing original about rust, dents, peeling paint, pitted chrome, and torn interiors. As soon as that trend changes to the next thing, I'll bet most of those ragged out cars get sold for a huge loss and restored by someone else. These are the same guys taking big losses on hemi powered cars that they overpaid for a few years back.

FFRS are meant to be driven and enjoyed. They are not investment pieces.

Well spoken
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post #18 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-19-2017, 02:05 AM
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Here is an example TODAY at Bring A Trailer.

Factory Five Cobra Replica | Bring a Trailer

One day left of the auction and this very nice Mark II is all the way up to $20,000.

Is it worth investing at this price? Probably not. But DEFINITELY worth the cost to put some miles on that baby and enjoy her.

$24,150 with 17 hours to go. -- Chuck

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post #19 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-19-2017, 12:07 PM
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For years I played in the Mustang and Shelby Mustang market. Those cars are classics, built the same, bona-fide collectibles. I got out of that market as it started to explode, and the cars vanished from the road. The level off equipment and options as ORIGINALLY built drive the value. And they had a specific list of what options could be had. Our FFR's have a virtually limitless choice of options, build possibilities, and combinations. No two are the same, so it is actually not easy to pin an exact $$$ on a given FFR. Buyers market every day.

The CSX2000 and 3000 Cobras are such an extreme example of desirability, value, limited production, you cannot use them in a logical debate about collector car values. #1 (CSX2000) is equivalent to the real Mona Lisa being offered at auction. It does not compute.

I agree with all above, our cars are unique, low-buck, and fun. The split second you look at is as an investment, the fun factor is gone. The true secret is to do a good build the way you want it, and drive the wheels off of it. (just look at me and my unique FFR!)

Like buying a Miata. A fun car, modified to taste, never appreciating.

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post #20 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-19-2017, 12:34 PM
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Not a bad return for a pretty typical donor build. Drove it a while, probably recovered his monetary investment.

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post #21 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-19-2017, 02:10 PM Thread Starter
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post #22 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-19-2017, 02:42 PM
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$24,150 with 17 hours to go. -- Chuck
Old straight up donor Mk2...at that the seller is getting a heck of a price and the buyer will have a lot of fun. Looks like a win-win to me (not bad for most of us either when this caliber of build can bring in that amount of money)!

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post #23 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-19-2017, 04:26 PM
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I for one will never sell mine, its been a major dream of mine to build, own and drive one. I plan on keeping it for a long time. I have also been informed by my daughter that it WILL be hers eventually!

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post #24 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-19-2017, 07:08 PM
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Cobra sold for 13.7 Million >> The First Shelby Cobra Sold for $13.75 Million
Whats "logical" about this.
That has much more to do with provenance than the car being a Cobra. #1 of anything that gets collected is usually the most valuable. Then you get the "Owned by Shelby himself", plus the car is definitely "historically significant". The car has a Hollywood type story of being painted several times to fool the press, etc. The car has never been sold before and may not sell again. Lots of value adders there for collectors. Then comes the fact that there are a couple hundred at most people that own original Cobras. Of that small club, only ONE guy gets to say he has #1. Sort of a "mine is bigger than yours" mentality.

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post #25 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-19-2017, 11:35 PM
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Old straight up donor Mk2...at that the seller is getting a heck of a price and the buyer will have a lot of fun. Looks like a win-win to me (not bad for most of us either when this caliber of build can bring in that amount of money)!

Jeff
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post #26 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-20-2017, 12:26 AM
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Other side of the coin

OK . . I'm just going to throw this out there for consideration.

I built my car as an investment . . .

That being said, allow me to explain.

I built it as an investment in to my [own] well being. I built it myself to prove that I could do it - to myself. An investment in confidence.

I built it to invest in life and all the adventures it can provide . . .
Nothing will bring a smile to your face and put a step in your heart like these cars do. An investment in adventure.

I don't really care what my car sells for after I'm done with it if I know that whoever buys it will be starting their own adventure.

I'm NOT done with it yet . . . 14 years driving it and I'm NOT done with it yet!

I have too much invested in it to quit now and give up the joy, exhilaration it provides, smiles, and the [F5] family I've acquired along the way.

I look at my car as an investment in life - and that's priceless. So with that in mind, you can't afford it . . .

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post #27 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-20-2017, 10:22 AM
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Since the beginning of time (automotivly speaking), car prices rise and fall at the whim of of the market, and the interested buyer pool. As such, and I've always said this, if you are looking at your Cobra replica as a momentary investment that will pay off in the future, you got into this hobby for the wrong reason. The main reason is a simple one, every day, newer kits and being built, with better equipment than a car build even as little as 6 months ago. Times that by 25+ years, and you'll see the used Cobra market growing, inventory wise. Now with that said, you can drill it down to a very basic mindset of "supply and demand", as the supply of used Cobras on the market goes up, and the demand for them stays steady (actually documented as falling over the last 5 years), you'll have two sets of sellers, those that have to sell for various reasons, and those that want to sell for various reasons, with those two groups and their personal motivations for "making a sale", the prices will swing wildly vs their motivations, thus making "your investment" a poor one......


Just my two cents worth.



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post #28 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-21-2017, 04:08 PM
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I always tell people that it cost me 40k to build but if I wanted to I could easily sell it for 25k. I don't drive mine much but for that reason I have no desire to sell.

If you don't think it's real, go ahead and step in front of it!

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post #29 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-21-2017, 09:54 PM
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OK . . I'm just going to throw this out there for consideration.

I built my car as an investment . . .

That being said, allow me to explain.

I built it as an investment in to my [own] well being. I built it myself to prove that I could do it - to myself. An investment in confidence.

I built it to invest in life and all the adventures it can provide . . .
Nothing will bring a smile to your face and put a step in your heart like these cars do. An investment in adventure.

I don't really care what my car sells for after I'm done with it if I know that whoever buys it will be starting their own adventure.

I'm NOT done with it yet . . . 14 years driving it and I'm NOT done with it yet!

I have too much invested in it to quit now and give up the joy, exhilaration it provides, smiles, and the [F5] family I've acquired along the way.

I look at my car as an investment in life - and that's priceless. So with that in mind, you can't afford it . . .

Doc
Well said. I just turned 10 years in mine and there were another 2 years in my first one. Every once in a while at a rainy autocross I am really jealous of a couple of friends in C5 and C6 vettes. I could sell mine and get at least a C5. But, after I put a set of shocks and a stiffer front bar, and a set of RE71Rs what the heck would I do? Try different alignment settings. No, heck no, my current quest is to make the FFR water tight.

FFR 5353K, 408W, TKO 500, 2015 IRS w/ 315 gear, Breeze QA1 DA coilovers front and rear, APE hardtop, Forte front swaybar
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post #30 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-21-2017, 11:10 PM
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I really don't care what it's worth. And I'm sure I could have gotten a better return by prudently investing the money I put into mine, but I'll tell you one thing, I get a hell of a lot more enjoyment buckling in and taking some hot laps than I do looking at a 401k statement.
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FFR #7124 Mk 3.1, Levy 5 link, LCA's & brakes, 17" Halibrands, electric PS, SAI, Eibach springs, BOSS 427w, webers, hood louvers, tilt front. Delivered 12/23/09, 1st start 02/19/12. 1st go cart 03/03/12. Titled 10/3/12.

"I'm basing it on a collective interpretation of these particular cars. And whatever the hell I like". The Federalist Patriot


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